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simple bear in with some contact :)

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 3:19 p.m.

In Response To: simple bear in with some contact :) (svilo)

The black moves 65,64,54 make paying later better for white. White may also throw a double or 7,9 or 11 (43,52,61,54,63,65) a total of 18/36 next move, making paying later twice less risky.

Only 53,62,51,42,41 = 10/36 make paying now worth while.

So the balance clearly swings to paying later.

How much equity will the wastage cost?

The move 13/12 13/11 gives 2 crossovers, if we count this effectively for 1 pip each than the total difference between this and the safe move is 3 pips, which counts for about 6% equity.

Being hit or not means a large swing in equity, so i guess paying later is better.

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