BGonline.org Forums

dbl 3's to play

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: dbl 3's to play (steve)

Stick is right, i will try to calculate the difference:

a. Playing 17/14 16/10 7/4 makes you need 15 pips (8/4/3)

b. Playing 17/11 16/10 makes you need 13 pips (5/4/1/3)

Let's for example take the situation where the move containing 2 (10/36) is followed by the move 43 for blue and a low move (no double 2 to 6) for white (31/36).

Now in case a. the moves 51,52,61 won't get blue of the gammon in contrast with case b.

If we take the example move 43 as a measure for the whole blue batch we can conlude the following:

White bears off in 1 move: 4/36 (=144/1296)

White bears off in two moves: 22/36*34/36 (excluded = 21)= 748/1296

White bears off in 3 moves: the rest: 404/1296

So the difference between the two moves is:

404/1296 * 6/36 - 748/1296 * 1/36 = (2424-748)/(1296 * 36) = 1676 / (1296*36) =about 46/1296 = almost 4%

So b. wins by about 4%.

Messages In This Thread

• dbl 3's to play
  steve -- Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 6:40 a.m.
  • dbl 3's to play
    Stick -- Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 6:57 a.m.
  • dbl 3's to play
    kruidenbuiltje -- Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 4:45 p.m.