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2-1 backgame continuation - ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 30 November 2011, at 4:20 a.m.

In Response To: 2-1 backgame continuation - now what? (Daniel Murphy)

My money game file misbehaved and crashed when I terminated the rollout after 1296 trials. But before it crashed I noted that correct cube action was redouble/pass, and double/take equity was +1.080. (Gnubg 2- and 4-ply evaluation was no redouble/take.)

At the actual match score with Blue leading 8-away 11-away, the redouble is clear and the take decision is close. OTB Sondre doubled and Mochy dropped.

The score (after 2 games) is: mochy 0, sonrik 3 (match to 11 points)

Move number 38: sonrik on roll, cube decision?

mochy	65
sonrik	127
Position ID: 7j0BAFBtN4AgDA Match ID: UQlgAQAAGAAE

• sonrik doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5139	(Money: +0.5196)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0103	+0.0103
3.	No double	+0.9075	-0.0925
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player sonrik owns 2-cube 0.8014 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1986 0.0763 0.0069 +0.5139 +0.9075 Standard error 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0007 0.0005 0.0027 0.0054 Player mochy owns 4-cube 0.8336 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1664 0.0696 0.0156 +1.1919 +1.0103 Standard error 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0008 0.0017 0.0061 0.0071
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2306 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 932367913 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4451 (Money: +0.4548)
0.7740 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2260 0.0888 0.0044
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.7357
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2643)
3. Double, take +0.6363 ( -0.0995)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (27.3%)

Messages In This Thread

• 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 7:13 p.m.
  • 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 2:18 a.m.
    • 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
    • 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
      Stick -- Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 4:12 a.m.
      • 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 8:46 p.m.
        • 2-1 backgame continuation - now what?
          Stick -- Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 2:10 a.m.
  • 2-1 backgame continuation - ROLLOUTS
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 30 November 2011, at 4:20 a.m.