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Daily Quiz 11/26: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 1 December 2011, at 2:55 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/26 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=cABBCBCA------c--b-b-cbA--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.XG Roller+23/16eq: +1.743
Player:
Opponent:
93.09% (G:84.46% B:6.61%)
6.91% (G:0.56% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller+7/5 6/1eq: +1.724 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
92.31% (G:85.35% B:5.65%)
7.69% (G:0.56% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller+23/18 7/5eq: +1.707 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
92.27% (G:82.86% B:6.62%)
7.73% (G:0.62% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller+23/18 6/4eq: +1.666 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
91.62% (G:81.34% B:5.88%)
8.38% (G:0.94% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller+23/18 4/2eq: +1.666 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
91.32% (G:81.86% B:6.02%)
8.68% (G:0.89% B:0.06%)
6.XG Roller+6/1 4/2eq: +1.632 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
90.30% (G:82.15% B:4.76%)
9.70% (G:0.83% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


XGR+ said this was a 0.755 take! The truncated rollout below is more believable, though I'm still surprised that it says it's a clear take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBB--BB-A-A-bB---b-cBbbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.08% (G: 33.23% B: 0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.92% (G: 11.24% B: 0.81%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.55% (G: 37.54% B: 0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.45% (G: 10.51% B: 0.69%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.282
Double:+1.161
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.772 (-0.164)
Double/Take:+0.936
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.064)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.752...+0.792)
Confidence Double: ± 0.025 (+0.911...+0.961)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-BB-B---cC-B-e-bcb--A-:2:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller+24/15eq: -0.496
Player:
Opponent:
21.96% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
78.04% (G:0.70% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller+13/4eq: -0.550 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
24.96% (G:4.00% B:0.09%)
75.04% (G:16.60% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller+13/7 8/5eq: -0.561 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
24.20% (G:3.52% B:0.07%)
75.80% (G:15.69% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant (see how long it takes you to spot the difference!):





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AB-BB-B---cC-B-e-bcb--A-:2:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller+13/10 8/2eq: -0.483
Player:
Opponent:
26.53% (G:3.97% B:0.09%)
73.47% (G:13.50% B:0.24%)
2.XG Roller+13/4eq: -0.495 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:
26.49% (G:3.89% B:0.09%)
73.51% (G:14.62% B:0.31%)
3.XG Roller+13/7 8/5eq: -0.504 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
26.13% (G:3.68% B:0.09%)
73.87% (G:14.37% B:0.34%)
4.XG Roller+8/5 8/2eq: -0.508 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
25.63% (G:3.73% B:0.09%)
74.37% (G:13.68% B:0.23%)
5.XG Roller+24/15eq: -0.513 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
21.26% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
78.74% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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