Here are rollout results for the four (gammon) go positions:
64S-64X-22 g[M P12] "<20
64S-41X-22 g[M P30] "<5
63S-64X-22 g[M m12 H18] "<20
63S-41X-22 g[M H22] "<20
In short, M (Mayfair split, bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)), hitting on neither the 18pt nor 5pt, and instead leaving a double-direct shot in the outer board, is the best play at gammon go.
Rollout details are posted below.
Nack
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 157 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-CA--dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.325 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.90% (G:14.37% B:1.61%)
48.10% (G:16.54% B:2.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.323...+0.327) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 day 05 hours 53 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.314 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.64% (G:14.05% B:1.29%)
48.36% (G:14.38% B:1.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.312...+0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 03 hours 39 minutes |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29615136
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 162 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 164
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-CA--eD---bae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.418 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.98% (G:15.92% B:1.67%)
45.02% (G:14.69% B:1.87%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.414...+0.422) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 11 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.388 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.25% (G:15.14% B:1.34%)
45.75% (G:12.95% B:1.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.384...+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 32 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60318314
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 157 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 165
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-C-A-dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.275 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.85% (G:12.91% B:1.26%)
49.15% (G:16.52% B:2.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.273...+0.277) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 hours 28 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 10/8 6/4(2) | eq: +0.263 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.03% (G:12.13% B:1.16%)
48.97% (G:14.52% B:1.61%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.261...+0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 hours 46 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18* | eq: +0.257 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.69% (G:11.17% B:1.37%)
48.31% (G:14.66% B:1.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.255...+0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 02 hours 00 minute |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 55513511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 162 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 165
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-C-A-eD---bae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.359 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.70% (G:14.24% B:1.58%)
46.30% (G:14.41% B:1.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.357...+0.361) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 day 05 hours 25 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 24/18* | eq: +0.337 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.58% (G:12.25% B:1.47%)
45.42% (G:12.59% B:1.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.335...+0.338) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 10 hours 02 minutes |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57928683
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2