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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 23 December 2006, at 10:21 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fri. Dec. 22nd - 2 decisions? (Stick)

After the quiet play you have a solid racing advantage of 15 pips, decent distribution, and 3 of my checkers trapped in your inner board. If you hit you still obviously have the advantage, but your position is a lot more 'loosey'. You leave 3 blots thrown around and some of your cubes if I fan aren't very efficient (I think I pass if I fan). Also I didn't roll out the cube decision because I think it's a clear ND. I also wondered if anyone considered making the 9 pt. here?


Match to 25, White leads 7 to 2
149
140
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/11 13/11 0.615
0.3% 5.4% 69.0% 31.0% 2.8% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.665
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.407 ±0.008, - live cube: 0.665 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 64253 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/4* 6/4 0.580 (-0.035)
1.1% 14.4% 66.6% 33.4% 9.5% 0.5%
Live cube rollout: 0.627
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.387 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.627 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 41922 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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