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Daily Quiz 11/29: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 4 December 2011, at 12:04 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 11/29 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 7 point match pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDBA---dDb--c-c-b--B-:0:0:1:46:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 46

1.	XG Roller+	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.238
	Player: Opponent: 42.92% (G:13.97% B:0.37%) 57.08% (G:14.38% B:0.76%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/20 13/7	eq: -0.325 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 42.00% (G:11.90% B:0.42%) 58.00% (G:15.90% B:0.80%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.354 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 40.93% (G:12.49% B:0.38%) 59.07% (G:15.76% B:1.00%)
4.	XG Roller+	13/7 8/4	eq: -0.354 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 40.63% (G:11.91% B:0.36%) 59.37% (G:14.82% B:0.87%)
5.	XG Roller+	24/18 13/9	eq: -0.383 (-0.145)
	Player: Opponent: 41.07% (G:11.15% B:0.42%) 58.93% (G:17.90% B:1.06%)
6.	3 ply	24/20 8/2	eq: -0.442 (-0.204)
	Player: Opponent: 38.89% (G:10.60% B:0.33%) 61.11% (G:17.90% B:0.85%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Truncated rollout:

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 118 7 point match pip: 147 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-A----Ab--d-eBbB-a-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.83% (G: 19.97% B: 0.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.17% (G: 8.16% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.24% (G: 20.56% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.76% (G: 7.97% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.423
Double:	+0.911
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.653
Double/Take:	+0.592 (-0.061)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.347)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.013 (+0.640...+0.665)
Confidence Double:	± 0.017 (+0.575...+0.609)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout for money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Money session Jacoby pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-A----Ab--d-eBbB-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.91% (G: 20.46% B: 0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.09% (G: 8.45% B: 0.35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.17% (G: 20.57% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.83% (G: 7.91% B: 0.31%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.318
Double:	+0.905
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.704
Double/Take:	+0.664 (-0.041)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.296)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+0.692...+0.717)
Confidence Double:	± 0.015 (+0.649...+0.679)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Money session Jacoby pip: 130 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b---FbCB--aD---bbbbb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.	XG Roller+	13/9(4)	eq: +0.663
	Player: Opponent: 68.29% (G:9.83% B:0.36%) 31.71% (G:4.27% B:0.12%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/5 9/5(2)	eq: +0.566 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 65.07% (G:12.32% B:0.46%) 34.93% (G:5.71% B:0.16%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/5(2)	eq: +0.565 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 64.69% (G:12.69% B:0.49%) 35.31% (G:6.21% B:0.22%)
4.	XG Roller+	13/9 8/4(3)	eq: +0.468 (-0.195)
	Player: Opponent: 62.62% (G:13.74% B:0.42%) 37.38% (G:6.52% B:0.21%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 11/29
  Daily Quiz -- Thursday, 1 December 2011, at 11:20 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/29
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 2 December 2011, at 12:53 a.m.
    • Daily Quiz 11/29
      Martin Sterel -- Friday, 2 December 2011, at 6:56 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/29
    Schreib -- Saturday, 3 December 2011, at 1:22 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 11/29: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 4 December 2011, at 12:04 a.m.