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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 12/2
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/2 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Sunday, 4 December 2011, at 10:30 a.m.
1.
There is a lot of good in this position, so I think the underlying question is:
Is it Too Good To Double?
Are there any moves that cause problems for blue?
Yes: 61,62 they give a 11/36 hit making white a say 70% favourite And: 51,52 they make white escape with 35,36,16 making white also about 70% favourite.
So the risk of playing on is 4/36 * 11/36 * 70% + 4/36 * 6/36 * 70% = 68/1296 * 70% = 4%.
For compensation we need to win 8% gammons, in fact we probably need some more since we are ahead in the match.
Combinations of 1,2 and 3 make a 6-prime, chance= 6/36. When we get this chance twice there is 31% chance for a 6-prime. I estimate half of these to pick up a second checker.
If we close out 2 checkers were about 45% to gammon. This will take us around 7% in gammons.
Maybe we get more chance to make the 6-prime, for instance when the blots from 18 control the blue garden. The gammons may raise to above 10%.
My answer: Too Good To Double
2.
This is a combination of a blitz double and a goal-double. Normally a 4-anchor would count as a valuable plus in a blitz, but this is here fully compensated by the 4-prime.
On their own the 1,5 point extra blue board, the 5-point and the 4 checkers on the 8-point are a fraction to small, also because of the fact that there is no diversification.
Moving a checker from 8 to 6 would help blues case narrowly into the Double window.
No Double.
3.
A strong asset here is the midpoint. Given this bad roll, we might try to escape with 22/15, keeping our structure intact. There is duplication of the 3, and some of the 1 (61,21 for instance)
22/15
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