I guess I failed to catch Fabrice's attention with this post. Anyway, here's the rollout for my position. I played 3/1*(2), figuring that backgammons were unlikely enough that I could safely ignore them even ATS, but my interpretation of the rollout results is that the backgammons do in fact matter here.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 116 | 3 point match
Crawford | pip: 18
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aCD-----ba-------abbbb-b-:0:0:1:11:0:2:1:3:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 2/1*(3) 1/0ff | eq: +1.063 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99.68% (G:98.37% B:0.96%)
0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.001 (+1.062...+1.064)
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 3/2 3/1* 1/0ff | eq: +1.062 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99.35% (G:97.54% B:1.24%)
0.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.001 (+1.061...+1.063)
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 3/1*(2) | eq: +1.052 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99.81% (G:97.74% B:0.34%)
0.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.001 (+1.051...+1.053)
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross