[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM Su 12/04/11

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 5 December 2011, at 4:26 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 12/04/11 (Jason Lee)

This problem is too tough for me so I'm going to vote for the play I don't think will win the majority vote. The gammon to win trade off is hard to estimate for me here. The easy part I suspect is if we hit and leave the blot we will win ~69.5% of the time, the 25/36 we are not hit. I'm also sure at dmp I would make the pick and pass play so that play must win clearly more than 69.5% but I'm not sure how much more, a few percent?

So if those are the win estimates then leaving the point slotted needs to win at least 6% more gammons than the lifting play. Before we get ahead of ourselves we should also realize that leaving the point slotted we will also lose more gammons and our gammon wins need to compensate for that. So I guess the main question is does leaving it slotted win at least ~8% more gammons than lifting the blot? I'd guess so ... so my play is 7/6 5/2*.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.