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Daily Quiz 12/3

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Monday, 5 December 2011, at 11:46 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/3 (Daily Quiz)

1.

Since the effective pipcount is around 67-76, blue is ahead 9/67 about 13%. So white still has about 20% race.

On top of that blue has some + moves and some -moves.

The +moves are 12,D1,32,D3 (95% effective in winning 20% equity)

The -moves are 61,51 (33% effective in losing 80% equity)

All in all:

6/36 * 0,95 * 0,20 - 4/36 * 0,33 * 0,80 =

3% - 3%

So it comes down to the race, DP.

2.

If white were to move, would he have a double/pass then?

Yes, because of the three point behind a probable 5-prime combined with the vulnerable contact.

The double hit 22x18x12 would give white 27/36 hits and a better board and gammon chances, also DP.

But what about the seemingly ugly 22x18 7/1.

Now the hitrisk is 20 + (43) = 22/36

From white's point of view it becomes a blitz and double from the bar which might be a very narrow take.

22x18 7/1

3.

Since the cube is on 4 the gammonvalue is heavily reduced.

That's why my choice for the 1 is 3/2.

Normally I would clear from the back,

but here it might be a good idea to clear the point on distance 6, which we don't want when we're ahead.

13/11 3/2

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