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Straw poll

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:28 p.m.

In Response To: Straw poll (Snua)

Can White win the equivalent of 25% of the time holding the cube? Figure White's main chance of winning is escaping, and that on average White will have two chances to roll a 6 out. That's 1 - 25²/36² = 52%. Not quite that, because of Blue's immediate joker 6-priming plays. A few of the escaping sixes will be outright winners when White hits a blot. The rest of the time White will probably face a double shot. If White only wins about half of the time from his main winning line, that's still about 25% of all games. More or less than 25%? Cubeless, I don't know, but counting the games White can win with the cube, it should be more. Gammon losses are small, and White will win some gammons too.

Since the take is in question, and Blue has quite a few market losers -- the great doublets of course, but lots of other sequences too, like bringing two builders in while White's board cracks -- Blue should double now.

By the way, how would you play double 5?

Messages In This Thread

• Straw poll
  Snua -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
  • Straw poll
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:14 p.m.
  • Straw poll
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:28 p.m.
    • Straw poll
      Snua -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
      • Straw poll
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 12:45 a.m.
  • Straw poll - Rollouts
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 7 December 2011, at 9:10 p.m.