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Daily Quiz 12/1: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 5 December 2011, at 6:37 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/1 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 5 point match pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaA--ADBB---cC---eBe------:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	69.15% (G: 24.85% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.85% (G: 6.21% B: 0.22%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.559
Double:	+1.192
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.818 (-0.135)
Double/Take:	+0.953
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.047)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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Not sure how reliable XGR+ is here, but this position is definitely a good DQR candidate.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 190 5 point match pip: 149 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---bEaC---cE-B-b-da-----:0:0:1:43:1:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 43

1.	XG Roller+	13/9 6/3	eq: +0.304
	Player: Opponent: 56.59% (G:14.44% B:0.71%) 43.41% (G:10.63% B:0.35%)
2.	XG Roller+	13/6	eq: +0.269 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 55.81% (G:14.75% B:0.57%) 44.19% (G:11.40% B:0.38%)
3.	XG Roller+	13/10 13/9	eq: +0.269 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 55.27% (G:15.75% B:0.94%) 44.73% (G:11.36% B:0.43%)
4.	XG Roller+	13/10 8/4	eq: +0.267 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 55.45% (G:14.97% B:0.72%) 44.55% (G:11.29% B:0.39%)
5.	XG Roller+	13/10 6/2	eq: +0.254 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 55.15% (G:15.26% B:0.76%) 44.85% (G:11.53% B:0.42%)
6.	XG Roller+	8/4 6/3	eq: +0.215 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 54.90% (G:13.14% B:0.53%) 45.10% (G:11.68% B:0.39%)
7.	XG Roller+	15/8	eq: +0.215 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 54.48% (G:14.44% B:0.68%) 45.52% (G:11.67% B:0.38%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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This was a big surprise to me. Should be a good DQR candidate. See also the variant below.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 208 5 point match pip: 114 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=abaBCcBBB---AB--Abbbb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	63.20% (G: 39.36% B: 6.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.80% (G: 3.63% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.822
Double:	+2.065
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.917 (-0.083)
Double/Take:	+1.290 (+0.290)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 207 5 point match pip: 114 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aabBCcBBB---AB--Abbbb-----:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	57.10% (G: 36.84% B: 3.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.90% (G: 4.91% B: 0.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.619
Double:	+1.561
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.795
Double/Take:	+0.774 (-0.021)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.205)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 12/1
  Daily Quiz -- Saturday, 3 December 2011, at 8:29 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/1
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 4 December 2011, at 12:42 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/1
    Schreib -- Sunday, 4 December 2011, at 1:17 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/1: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 6:37 p.m.