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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 12/3
Posted By: Pilgrim In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/3 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Monday, 5 December 2011, at 7:39 p.m.
Nice set today. My money is that I get all three wrong. All would be great DQR material
Problem 1 - Double/Pass - There is a huge amount in this problem. I am no fan of match play and could not tell you what the take point or gammon value is. I am clearly at risk of getting this wrong. However, it is clear that (1) the gammon values for both players are massive when the cube is turned; and (2) White has a very powerful recube vig if he takes and turns the game around.
As always, the first question is the take. I am not sure this can be treated as a straight racing position because there is contact. Looking at the rolls, 14 hit & cover the point [12,13,15,32,35,36,11,33], 4 hit & clear [14,34], 16 are racing rolls [24,25,26,45,46,56,22,44,55,66] and 2 leave shots [16].
So white will win if blue rolls 16 and gets hit (about .66 games in 36), if blue leaves an indirect shot & gets hit (may 3 games in 36) or if he gets lucky in the race (maybe 3.5 games in 36). I would guess white wins about 7 games in 36. This would not be a money take. The question is whether the gammon value & recube vig turn it into a take.Gammon chances here seem reasonably low. To me, this is a pass. I would not be surpirsed to find it is either Too Good or a take
Problem 2 - 22/18*/12* - It is DMP and gammons do not count. At the moment you are likely to lose unless you do something. Double hit and see what happens
Problem 3 - 18/16, 3/2 - I think the first priority here is not to get hit so I would move the blot. After that, the next priority is to get the back checkers moving. Blue has the cube and may be able to double next go, provided he is not hit.
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