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63S-41X-22, rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 8:12 p.m.

In Response To: More rollouts? (Nack Ballard)

The 63S-41X-22 position/rollout diagrammed below is the same as 64S-41X-22 (rollout results posted here and here) except that Blue's 9pt builder is on the 10pt. The duplication of 5s makes H (Hit, bar/23 24/18*) more attractive, and the weaker duplication of 4s makes M (Mayfair split, bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)) and P (Point, bar/23 8/6 6/4(2), the latter not rolled out) relatively less attractive.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-C-A-eD---bae----AA:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout1Bar/23 24/18* eq: +0.135
Player:
Opponent:		53.06% (G:14.65% B:0.74%)
46.94% (G:12.12% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.129...+0.142) - [90.5%]
Duration: 13 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 13/11 6/4(2)eq: +0.130 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		53.00% (G:15.30% B:0.74%)
47.00% (G:12.84% B:0.67%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.124...+0.136) - [9.5%]
Duration: 12 hours 11 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/23 10/8 6/4(2)eq: +0.117 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		52.80% (G:14.02% B:0.61%)
47.20% (G:12.00% B:0.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.109...+0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 18 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18531758
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18531758
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

I'll post an old Snowie rollout of six plays (though only to 5k) of this position separately. It has H beating M by a larger margin (.020 instead of .006).

Nack

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