Straw poll - Rollouts

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Straw poll - Rollouts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 7 December 2011, at 9:10 p.m.

In Response To: Straw poll (Snua)

Since it's Wednesday I'll go ahead and post a rollout and hope that's ok with Simon. Actually five rollouts:
(1) the original position which turns out to be a pass
(2) how to play 5-5 after double/take
(3) White's home board spare has been moved from the 2 point to the 5 point - a take
(4) moved to the 4 point - a small take
(5) moved to the 3 point - a borderline pass/take
Unlimited match.
White 74

Blue 100
Position ID: u20HACC2bQwjAA Match ID: cIkWAAAAAAAA

Alert: missed double ( -0.1237)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.5406

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, pass +1.0000

2. Double, take +1.0316 +0.0316

3. No double +0.8763 -0.1237

Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.7724 0.0344 0.0006 - 0.2276 0.0387 0.0006 +0.5406 +0.8763

Standard error 0.0009 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0009 0.0001 0.0019 0.0047

Player White owns 2-cube 0.7818 0.0364 0.0008 - 0.2182 0.0387 0.0006 +1.1232 +1.0316

Standard error 0.0009 0.0010 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0010 0.0001 0.0041 0.0054

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

How to play 5-5 after double/take:
White 74

Blue 100
Position ID: u20HACC2bQwjAA Match ID: QYkWAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity

• 1 R 16/6 13/3 +0.3787

0.7278 0.0254 0.0005 - 0.2722 0.0190 0.0001 +0.4624 +0.3787

0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0006 0.0000 0.0017 0.0023

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2 R 13/3 9/4(2) +0.3786 ( -0.0001)

0.7257 0.0234 0.0005 - 0.2743 0.0267 0.0004 +0.4481 +0.3786

0.0009 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0008 0.0001 0.0019 0.0025

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

3 R 16/6 9/4(2) +0.3617 ( -0.0170)

0.7257 0.0232 0.0005 - 0.2743 0.0163 0.0002 +0.4585 +0.3617

0.0009 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0006 0.0000 0.0018 0.0026

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

4 R 16/1* 9/4 +0.3183 ( -0.0604)

0.7071 0.0207 0.0005 - 0.2929 0.0894 0.0006 +0.3453 +0.3183

0.0013 0.0009 0.0001 - 0.0013 0.0016 0.0002 0.0029 0.0040

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

740 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White 77

Blue 100
Position ID: 23YHACC2bQwjAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.5208

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, take +0.9669

2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0331

3. No double +0.8535 -0.1134

Proper cube action: Double, take

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.7632 0.0294 0.0007 - 0.2368 0.0352 0.0005 +0.5208 +0.8535

Standard error 0.0009 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0010 0.0001 0.0021 0.0050

Player White owns 2-cube 0.7687 0.0304 0.0008 - 0.2313 0.0316 0.0004 +1.0731 +0.9669

Standard error 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 - 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 0.0044 0.0056

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939437262 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White 76

Blue 100
Position ID: 224HACC2bQwjAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.5257

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, take +0.9792

2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0208

3. No double +0.8627 -0.1165

Proper cube action: Double, take

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.7658 0.0303 0.0005 - 0.2342 0.0367 0.0000 +0.5257 +0.8627

Standard error 0.0018 0.0016 0.0002 - 0.0018 0.0020 0.0003 0.0041 0.0088

Player White owns 2-cube 0.7707 0.0309 0.0005 - 0.2293 0.0336 0.0000 +1.0782 +0.9792

Standard error 0.0018 0.0019 0.0003 - 0.0018 0.0019 0.0003 0.0083 0.0095

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939292288 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White 75

Blue 100
Position ID: 220HACC2bQwjAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.5320

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, pass +1.0000

2. Double, take +1.0055 +0.0055

3. No double +0.8678 -0.1322

Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.7690 0.0328 0.0006 - 0.2310 0.0388 0.0006 +0.5320 +0.8678

Standard error 0.0006 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.0014 0.0033

Player White owns 2-cube 0.7771 0.0347 0.0008 - 0.2229 0.0389 0.0005 +1.1005 +1.0055

Standard error 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 0.0030 0.0037

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 939292288 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	74

Blue	100
Position ID: `u20HACC2bQwjAA` Match ID: `cIkWAAAAAAAA`

White	74

Blue	100
Position ID: `u20HACC2bQwjAA` Match ID: `QYkWAAAAAAAA`

White	77

Blue	100
Position ID: `23YHACC2bQwjAA` Match ID: `cAkAAAAAAAAA`

White	76

Blue	100
Position ID: `224HACC2bQwjAA` Match ID: `cAkAAAAAAAAA`

White	75

Blue	100
Position ID: `220HACC2bQwjAA` Match ID: `cAkAAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Straw poll
Snua -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
- Straw poll
  Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:14 p.m.
- Straw poll
  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:28 p.m.
  - Straw poll
    Snua -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
    - Straw poll
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 12:45 a.m.
- Straw poll - Rollouts
  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 7 December 2011, at 9:10 p.m.

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