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42P-44B-32

Posted By: svilo
Date: Wednesday, 7 December 2011, at 10:58 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-44B-32 (svilo)

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=----BbD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:6
to play 32

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/10	eq: -0.412
	Player: Opponent: 40.30% (G:8.24% B:0.33%) 59.70% (G:16.70% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.419...-0.404) - [70.9%] Duration: 3 hours 52 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/21 6/4	eq: -0.415 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 40.47% (G:7.34% B:0.28%) 59.53% (G:15.95% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.422...-0.408) - [29.1%] Duration: 4 hours 39 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/22 6/3	eq: -0.433 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 40.39% (G:7.35% B:0.27%) 59.61% (G:17.68% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.440...-0.425) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
4.	Rollout1	24/22 24/21	eq: -0.435 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 40.09% (G:6.92% B:0.26%) 59.91% (G:16.39% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.442...-0.428) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes
5.	Rollout1	24/21 13/11	eq: -0.446 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 39.87% (G:8.24% B:0.32%) 60.13% (G:18.01% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.454...-0.438) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 38 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Nack nailed it :) I do not know if it needs more RO since the major split gets ahead by a tiny margin.

This RO confirms Major splits are generally better, but the minor split here is so near only because it does not offer a shot. The major split bids for a better anchor, controls more orchard (midboard, enemy outer board), tactically only the point on his head hurts, but the point BEHIND the blot is hardly a damage - the enemy has less point making tempo threats. The minor split suffers both from a point on head and from enemy point before the blot. The other conclusion for me is once he has a point (inner high, outer 9 or bar) you've got to split as soon as possible, but if he's got the 3 or 2, then most probably splitting is not so urgent and is probably a mistake if it is "between the roses".

OtB I would not figure out minor split with 6/3 was better than minor split with a slot on 10.

Also why is the duplication of 5s to hit on my 10 and from his surplus 8 so important the major split with 13/11 gets .034 less than the LOW split with 13/10.

Messages In This Thread

• 42P-44B-32
  svilo -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 5:00 p.m.
  • 42P-44B-32
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 6:37 p.m.
    • 42P-44B-32
      Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
  • 42P-44B-32
    Stick -- Monday, 5 December 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
    • 42P-44B-32
      svilo -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 3:27 p.m.
  • Score?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 5:01 p.m.
    • Score?
      svilo -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 6:33 p.m.
      • XG diagram feedback
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 December 2011, at 7:45 p.m.
        • XG diagram feedback
          eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 1:00 a.m.
  • 42P-44B-32
    svilo -- Wednesday, 7 December 2011, at 10:58 p.m.
    • 42P-44B-32
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 1:49 a.m.
      • 42P-44B-32 leading with the chin
        svilo -- Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
        • 42P-44B-32 leading with the chin
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 5:36 p.m.
  • 42P-44B-32 -d 5K RO
    svilo -- Monday, 12 December 2011, at 11:49 a.m.
    • 42P-44B-32 at –11–11
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 12 December 2011, at 4:04 p.m.
      • 42P-44B-32 at –11–11
        svilo -- Wednesday, 14 December 2011, at 12:10 p.m.
      • 42P-44B-32 10K RO at DMP the blind man with the gun
        svilo -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 7:32 a.m.