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DMP checkerplay

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: DMP checkerplay (Michael Nielsen)

Make the 6 or hit loose? If you make the 6, Seret's pipple count sez your EPC is ~61. White's EPC (per Seret) is around 49 plus the 20 for his back man = ~69. After White's next roll of 8 pips, it'll be Blue on roll in a 61-61 EPC race. 61/7 is around 8.7 so the trailer's point of last take in a money game would be when trailing by 5.7 pips (leader's rolls minus 3 per the late Walter Trice). If White's EPC was 57, the game would be pick-em. If 57 is 50% and 66.7 is 78%, then each pip in this range is worth about 2.9%. 4 x 2.9% = 11.6% so Blue wins about 61.6% with this play, around 22.2/36.

How about the loose hit? 13 numbers hit back and that's real bad for you. Say you win 1 of those 13. OTOH, there are 16 dancers after which you're a big favorite. Say 15 wins there. That's 16 wins so far in 29 games. The other 7 enter without hitting. Can you win at least 6.2 of these 7? I don't think so. These numbers average 11 pips meaning White's EPC will be around 63 vs. you on roll with about 59. I think you win about 74% of these, about 5.25 more wins. That totals 21.25/36, about 1 less win in 36 than making the 6-point.

11/6 7/6 looks best to me.

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