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Rollout

Posted By: misja
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 8:54 a.m.

In Response To: Cube for the match? (misja)

I was surprised that in such a gammonish position it could be correct to redouble instead of playing on, especially since it is a take. But as Stick pointed out already, with the cube on 4 the gammonprice is actually quite low.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 112
11 point match
pip: 100
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaCBBBB-A-----Ab--Bd-bbba-:2:1:1:00:6:4:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 89,48% (G:40,48% B:2,23%) 90,04% (G:36,33% B:1,67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 10,52% (G:1,87% B:0,04%) 9,96% (G:1,64% B:0,06%)
Cubeless Equities +0,901 +0,975
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,950 (-0,025)±0,003 (+0,947..+0,954)
Redouble/Take:+0,975±0,005 (+0,970..+0,980)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,025)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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