[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 10 December 2011, at 3:13 p.m.

In Response To: 63 to play (John O'Hagan)

I was surprised when XG's eval said my 23/14 play was wrong here since running out seemed pretty clear to me (and to all of you) at the time. If I'm not hit, we'll have a close race which should maximize my chances of offering an efficient recube. I figured that I would likely have to leave more shots if I ran later since Black will likely split his spare on the 15-pt. to give him more outfield coverage. I think we all failed to consider the gammon threat. The RO shows that 23/14 does win 1% more games over 9/6 9/3, but net gammons lost goes from 1% to 7%. If Black does roll a hitting 4, you might get closed out and g'd with those 6 outfield crossovers. If you stay on the 23-pt, Black's immediate hitting chances are reduced (unless he hits you loose with a 4). The 44 joker closes you out, the low doubles switch, and 41 picks and passes. Most of his other rolls leave you some indirect shots and hitting one of these will win if you don't get hit back. Plus, if you're not closed out, you can always run out later.

is XG Roller+

score: 2
pip: 99
13 point match
pip: 105
score: 3

is John O'Hagan
XGID=-B--BBBABCc----a---cbbbAb-:1:1:1:63:3:2:0:13:10
to play 63

1.Rollout19/6 9/3eq: -0.349
Player:
Opponent:		29.55% (G:5.81% B:0.13%)
70.45% (G:6.67% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.354...-0.345) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout123/14eq: -0.361 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		30.59% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
69.41% (G:7.57% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.365...-0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds
3.Rollout123/17 9/6eq: -0.362 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		29.58% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
70.42% (G:6.10% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.367...-0.357) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.