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Score effects etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 11 December 2011, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 12/10/11 (Stick)

When I discuss a decision to give a cube with even a small lead in a long match, many players question me as to how can the match score possibly matter when both sides are so far from victory and the cube is small. The issue is that after our opp grabs this cube, his recube vig is greater than normal since if we take the 4 cube our recube vig to 8 is less than normal. We'll have almost no GV when we recube to 8. As expected our TP in 4 is a bit higher than normal and his GV a bit higher.

My estimate of the difference in emgs needed to AtS to cube this position type (long game likely and many checkers back and quite a few G's both ways) is about .04 or .05 at the borderline.

So lets say that I think this position is no better than a borderline cube for money..ie no gain or loss in emg from cubing it. Then AtS I have nothing to think about since cubing will be wrong by .04 or .05 emg based on my understanding.

What about cubing this bcuz we're playing a better player to jack it up? That might be OK in a shorter game with little skill but here unless we joker our opp off the table and he dances lots this is going to be a long game with many chances for us to err in checker play. It is nearly inconviable to think that much more than the 10-20% of the time we roll super, that we can play this game without making at least a couple checker errors. In a position like this, it is likely that whatever MWC gain we get from jacking it up will be return by a couple more checker play errors than out opp makes.

This is in contrast to a simple blitz AtS like 62S-55A-F where XGR++ says our opp has a .95 take AtS. That is a more simple position to play since there's only two back checkers and I know that if playing a weaker player who knows how to blitz reasonably well, I'd strongly consider passing.

In summary:

1) I think that when valued at an even score in a long match or for money that we need to be about .04 or .05 better than the borderline for money to cube here.

2) This is very often going to be a long game so whatever MWC gains we may get from cubing aggressively vs our stronger opp we are likely to return by making a couple of checker errors.

So CLEAR ND .. neilkaz ..

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