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cube action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 12 December 2011, at 2:11 a.m.

In Response To: cube action (Martin Sterel)

In the second position, White's take point is 33%. Blue hits with 15 rolls. If Blue misses then White will usually win. This is a trivial take. What about the double? If things go well for Blue then by doubling, he increases his MWC from 50% to 75%; if things go poorly then he decreases his MWC from 16% to 0%. So he's risking 16% to gain 25%, and can double with about 40% GWC. If Blue's hits were gin then he would have over 40%, but despite his five-point board, White will squirm out occasionally. I don't know how to estimate this, nor do I know how to estimate Blue's winning chances if he misses his current shot. The doubling decision looks fairly close, and I could be off, but I would not double.

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