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Does anyone get this play correct, without QF?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 13 December 2011, at 12:59 a.m.

In Response To: Does anyone get this play correct, without QF? (Joe Russell)

I think I'd have about a 50% chance of getting this play right (whatever the right play happens to be). It's clear that both plays leave the same number of shots, that hitting wins more backgammons (which are particularly valuable ATS) but loses more games and gammons. Estimating the backgammons isn't so hard either. But estimating OTB the wins and gammons after hitting is beyond my ability.

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