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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 12/10
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/10 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 13 December 2011, at 2:03 a.m.
1. I definitely don't like W when our board is weaker and there's no meaningful duplication of White's numbers. Bar/24 6/4 is possible but I'd rather get one or both of our back checkers off the 24pt. White's priming threat looks stronger than her attacking threat so I'd try bar/22.
2. To an excellent first approximation we lose no gammons even if we hit, so this is basically a DMP problem. If we hit then we're a huge favorite if we are not hit back immediately, and are probably a slight underdog if we are hit back immediately. I'd estimate 75–80% winning chances if we hit. So to estimate the winning chances if we bear two, let's imagine what the cube action would be if this were a money game, knowing in advance that we're going to roll 52 and bear two. I'm not quite sure how to calculate the EPC but it looks like a big drop to me (White has too many crossovers), with more than 80% winning chances for Blue. So 5/off 2/off.
3. This is DMP. The main candidates seem to be 11/8 11/6, 12/9* 8/3*, and 15/10 13/10; we could also consider 15/10 12/9*, 15/12 8/3*, and 11/3*, but these don't look stronger than the double hit. 11/8 11/6 looks safest at first glance but leaves 18 shots while 12/9* 8/3* leaves 14 shots. 15/10 13/10 leaves 20 shots. Also 12/9* 8/3* leaves five blots around the board, and even though gammon losses don't count, it looks pretty loose. My first instinct was to hit twice, but after counting shots, I'll try 15/10 13/10.
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