I thought that 13/9* 8/3 trying for a four-prime (if White doesn't roll a 3) might be better than 13/9* 13/8. The rollout below may not be quite long or strong enough, but it looks like a case of "close, but no cigar."
As for the strategy of avoiding the hit in order to let White rush forwards, I think that's usually preferable to hitting only if Blue is anchored behind the six-prime and if his priming chances are even worse than they are here.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 85 | | 7 point match | pip: 101
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BA-CCB-Aa---B---acbbbbbA-:1:-1:1:54:5:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/9* | eq: -0.858 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 7.12% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
92.88% (G:31.63% B:2.04%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.863...-0.853)
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9* 8/3 | eq: -0.869 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 6.57% (G:0.28% B:0.00%)
93.43% (G:44.95% B:5.30%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.874...-0.864)
Duration: 57 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/9* 9/4 | eq: -0.883 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 5.83% (G:0.14% B:0.01%)
94.17% (G:34.73% B:3.43%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.888...-0.878)
Duration: 52 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/8 5/1 | eq: -0.919 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 4.07% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
95.93% (G:25.55% B:0.82%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.923...-0.915)
Duration: 52 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.923 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.84% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
96.16% (G:23.76% B:1.31%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.927...-0.919)
Duration: 47 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 8/3 5/1 | eq: -0.927 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.65% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
96.35% (G:24.55% B:1.75%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.931...-0.923)
Duration: 49 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross