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2a5a cube - ROLLOUT and some thoughts

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 13 December 2011, at 5:45 p.m.

In Response To: 2a5a cube from Zagreb finale (mtuhtan)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 102
11 point match
pip: 88
score: 9

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BCBC-CB--a--a-aabbbbb--:0:0:1:00:9:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83,98% (G:4,02% B:0,05%) 84,68% (G:3,38% B:0,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16,02% (G:0,52% B:0,01%) 15,32% (G:0,47% B:0,01%)
Cubeless Equities +0,749 +2,104
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,989 (-0,011)±0,002 (+0,987..+0,991)
Double/Take:+1,612 (+0,612)±0,009 (+1,602..+1,621)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23144441
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

This was my first final of some backgammon tournament, so I took a lot of time to calculate opponent's takepoint, to make sure I don't ruin my chances now I'm this close to the tournament win.

After I calculated opp's takepoint, I looked at the position and have gone trough all rolls on my next shake.

I doubled, opponent quickly looked at the score, noticed he's behind in the match and - took!

Later he had a shot from the bar after one my antijoker, but he missed so I won game, match and the tournament! (If I calculated correctly, now I have one tournament win more than Stick :D)


Almost immediately, one player came to us and said he wants to bet that was no double and easy take at the score!! (And I know he didn't do any MET/TP calculations)
Unfortunately, I was thrilled that I won the tournament so I didn't want to bet.


As some of you noticed, I think that biggest misunderstanding here was - if opponent wins this game, he has not won the match yet.

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