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XGR++ RO and 1 ply RO..etc

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Wednesday, 14 December 2011, at 10:15 a.m.

In Response To: XGR++ RO and 1 ply RO..etc (neilkaz)

While it is correct that Morten's chances from 8-9 would be better vs. a weak opponent, it is also true that his chances from 8-7 would be much better vs. same.

But I think the biggest mistake you make in this analysis, is only compensating through the ME table, forgetting the position at hand.

Morten's opponent clearly has the most difficult play from after a hit, both checker- and cubewise. Which might overturn the decision of playing safe vs. weak opponents.

I just tested this thesis, by making a gnubg rollout, using Jac -100 (= big adjustment for ME table), and rolled out using "Advanced" (0,015 noise) for the weak opponent. 10000+ games, no trunc, according to score/cube, quasi rnd.

Morten's play is still correct.

I think the adjustment for checkerplay in the remainder of the current game, is not as big as the adjustment for ME table, for the rest of the games in the match, thus the rollout represents a conservative adjusted result, weakly favorizing your initial thought.

(I would have pasted the result here, but gnubg crashed on me. Something it almost never do).

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