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Rollout: To Pottle or not to Pottle

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 1:59 a.m.

In Response To: To Pottle or not to Pottle (Timothy Chow)

OTB I Pottled. Afterwards, XGR+ dinged me to the tune of 0.070 EMG. However, the rollout below suggests that the top two plays are close. If someone with a better machine is willing to post a better rollout, I'd be curious to see it.

Anyway, the point I wanted to make is that decision whether to run now or to build one's board first (when the race is fairly close) is a tricky one.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---A--ECBbC-a-a--bbc-b-bA-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/16eq: -0.871
Player:
Opponent:		 28.24% (G:2.07% B:0.12%)
71.76% (G:12.03% B:0.19%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.883...-0.859)
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout110/4 6/4eq: -0.875 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		 26.39% (G:2.97% B:0.11%)
73.61% (G:7.13% B:0.13%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.886...-0.864)
Duration: 4 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout124/22 10/4eq: -0.933 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		 27.50% (G:4.12% B:0.21%)
72.50% (G:15.01% B:0.32%)		Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.946...-0.920)
Duration: 3 hours 28 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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