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Hopeless anyway

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:58 a.m.

In Response To: 2a5a cube - ROLLOUT and some thoughts (Timothy Chow)

Miran's second suggestion that people don't try to make any quantitative estimate and just think that 5a1a is "hopeless anyway" sounds more plausible to me than the suggestion that people go to the trouble of trying to put a number on it and get the wrong numbers.

To me too. Most mathematically uninclined players I have played with OTB tend to botch the comparison between two low probabilities, because they take the shortcut of choosing one of them as "hopeless anyway" and equate it to 0. Note that it leads some to wrongly take (because the match score would be "hopeless anyway") and others to wrongly pass (because the position is "hopeless anyway"). This can also lead to terrible checker plays in "hopeless" positions.

I liked your wording for it and would like to coin that bad heuristic the Hopeless Anyway Fallacy.

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