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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:04 p.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (eXtreme Gammon)

I understand this calculation, but you can do the same thing with the 4 of hearts and the ace of diamonds, and then the most likely place of the ace of diamonds shifts hands. So I guess I am with what Chuck says, that it is misleading.

I think no east would play small from under the queen in this situation, if you don't touch the suit defense will win two tricks (would help to see dummy, may not be true in all cases). East may be playing from under the ace to give a losing option. I'd put up the king of diamonds.

Messages In This Thread

• bridge probability question (OT)
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 7:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:19 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - a much easier answer.
      eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:01 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:04 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT)
        eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:27 a.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT)
          Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:22 a.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT)
            Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:27 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:34 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
  • some clarifications
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 1:01 a.m.
      • some clarifications
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 3:27 a.m.
        • some clarifications
          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 8:26 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:46 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:05 a.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:54 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Rodney Lighton -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:49 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    misja -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:11 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 5:27 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:14 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        TarHeelFan -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:09 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    gampas -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:42 p.m.
  • Recommended Reading
    David Levy -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Recommended Reading
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:00 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
      Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 10:12 a.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
          Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:02 p.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
            Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:28 p.m.