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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:34 p.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

I feel like I'm missing your point because I don't know the dummy's hand. Are we supposed to infer that there are two aces in the dummy and two aces in the defenders' hands? Presumably the column tells us what the dummy has.

As a matter of pure probability, of course it is more likely that two aces will be split between the defenders. Wherever the first ace is, the chances are 13/25 that the second ace will be in the other hand and 12/25 that it will be in the same hand. If you want to ask whether that fact holds true in this specific situation, you kind of have to tell us the whole situation.

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