[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

2a5a cube - ROLLOUT and some thoughts

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 12:43 a.m.

In Response To: 2a5a cube - ROLLOUT and some thoughts (Timothy Chow)

I wrote:

Are there really that many people who would get as far as thinking about the odds quantitatively in this way and yet think that they're risking one point to potentially gain five?

When I wrote this, I had not (yet) tried to reconstruct the incorrect reasoning that Neil was suggesting might be going through people's minds. Now I have. The reasoning is this: dropping loses one point, taking and losing loses two points, taking and winning wins four points. This gives 5 to 1 odds.

Though I still doubt that many people who actually think this way, now that I've spelled out the argument explicitly, I'm less skeptical than I was at first.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.