[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:27 a.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Casper van der Tak)

I misunderstood chuck question. I though he was just wondering about the statement "The odds slightly favor two aces being split between the defenders, not both in the same hand.".

Now i understand the question was after the first 2 trick were played. At that point of the position one Ace was already revealed and the position of the other one is 50-50 in either West or East. So yes the comment is misleading.

As you point i can see a few cases:

  • East has not the A or Q of diamond: either choice is a lost anyway
  • East has either A or Q and the play of a xD is automatic IMO: making two tricks in Diamond is the only way to make the contract fail.
  • East has AQ, I would not play xD, if West has the K then play the A and play xD, if west does not have the King, then cash your Ace at least the contract will not +1.

    Like you i put the King just in case East messed up and played under AQ, but we are basically 50-50 against good opponents.

    btw, am i the only one who thing 4S response by north is VERY timid with that hand? It's been a while i played bridge (even longer since i played competitively) but i would have answer 4C to get a bit more decription of South hand. Or if you don't want to be make it complicated jump to 4NT to get the aces count (but in that case you will end up at 5S and fail).

    • Messages In This Thread

     

    Post Response
    Your Name:
    Your E-Mail Address:
    Subject:
    Message:

    If necessary, enter your password below:

    Password:
     

     

    [ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

    BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.