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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:54 a.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Dorn Bishop)

I see from your original post that declarer is the dealer so my previous post seems not to apply. I still don't follow Alder's statement that the odds favor split aces.

Curious, though, what the point of Alder's article is? Is it that East is more likely to hold the Ace of diamonds because West did not lay it down at trick one to take a look at dummy?

Btw, is this matchpoints or IMPS? If matchpoints, East might just cash the A of diamonds at trick 3 rather than risk losing to a singleton king. So that would suggest playing West to have the Ace.

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