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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: Rodney Lighton
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:49 a.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

A priori Alder is right as others have said the Aces are slightly more likely to be split.

However, in this deal there are many more considerations. The position of the A and Q of diamonds are critical. Assuming teams play (i.e. the defenders are trying to beat this contract and overtricks are fairly irrelevant) then the defence's play is automatic after the Heart lead.

So it boils down to what you can infer from the lead. Leading unsupported Aces in general is not a good idea, although it is more justifiable after an opening pre-empt. If West would not lead an unsupported Ace and has the diamond Ace, then he had to choose between Hearts and Clubs. If he had no Aces then he had to choose between Hearts, Diamonds and Clubs. He got lucky and chose the right suit which was more likely if he had the diamond Ace, therefore I would play West for the Diamond Ace.

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