BGonline.org Forums

some clarifications

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 8:26 a.m.

In Response To: some clarifications (Chuck Bower)

I think Timothy is right. It is a matter of 13 unknowns vs 13 unknowns, hence 13/25 and 12/25 as odds. Here I don't think it applies. The number of unknowns has changed, and not much inference can be drawn from the small diamond lead (you do that here from Qx(xx..) and Ax(xx..). The issue is whether west is more or less likely to hold the Q of diamonds or A of diamonds, and we have no info on that.

My earlier inference about the play of diamonds is not valid anymore because there is a side suit to be run.

Messages In This Thread

• bridge probability question (OT)
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 7:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:19 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - a much easier answer.
      eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:01 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:04 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT)
        eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:27 a.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT)
          Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:22 a.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT)
            Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:27 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:34 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
  • some clarifications
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 1:01 a.m.
      • some clarifications
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 3:27 a.m.
        • some clarifications
          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 8:26 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:46 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:05 a.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:54 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Rodney Lighton -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:49 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    misja -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:11 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 5:27 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:14 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        TarHeelFan -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:09 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    gampas -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:42 p.m.
  • Recommended Reading
    David Levy -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Recommended Reading
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:00 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
      Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 10:12 a.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
          Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:02 p.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
            Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:28 p.m.