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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: misja
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:11 a.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

I think the author is correct but for the wrong reason.
It would help to see the dummy's hand but I assume that, because we have 9 winners and he has shown strength, he must have the ace of Spades and ace king of Clubs.
The key to determining who has the ace of Diamonds is LH's lead of the 4 of Hearts. There is a good chance that he had a reason to lead Hearts (or Clubs) and not Diamonds. That reason might be that he has the ace of Diamonds because leading from a single ace is generally not a good idea.
This increases the probability of him having the ace, so South should play a small diamond and hope that East has the queen.

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