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bridge probability question (OT)

Posted By: gampas
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:42 p.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

Alder is not correct in concluding that the chance of the ace of diamonds being with East is any greater than that of the queen of diamonds being with East. We do not know the layout of the heart suit, but whatever it is the relative chance of the queen and ace of diamonds being with East are unaffected.

If dummy has a source of tricks, then it is a pure guess. If dummy does not, so that declarer will be forced to play diamonds himself, and the opponents are expert, then one should play the king. The opponents are not there to help us.

Messages In This Thread

• bridge probability question (OT)
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 7:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:19 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 9:53 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - a much easier answer.
      eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:01 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:04 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT)
        eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:27 a.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT)
          Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:22 a.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT)
            Petter Bengtsson -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:27 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 10:34 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 15 December 2011, at 11:09 p.m.
  • some clarifications
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 1:01 a.m.
      • some clarifications
        Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 3:27 a.m.
        • some clarifications
          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 8:26 a.m.
    • some clarifications
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 2:46 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:05 a.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT)
      Dorn Bishop -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:54 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    Rodney Lighton -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:49 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    misja -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:11 a.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 5:27 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:14 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) review and another question
        TarHeelFan -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:09 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT)
    gampas -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 7:42 p.m.
  • Recommended Reading
    David Levy -- Friday, 16 December 2011, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Recommended Reading
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
  • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:00 p.m.
    • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
      Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 10:12 a.m.
      • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
        • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
          Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:02 p.m.
          • bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
            Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 4:28 p.m.