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Rollout v Eval

Posted By: Snua
Date: Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 5:04 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action (Snua)

This is a short rollout:





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 1
pip: 213
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 2

Blue is Simon
XGID=abaaB-C-C--BcCb--b-cA--A--:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:5:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.13% (G:36.02% B:7.39%) 61.38% (G:35.83% B:16.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.87% (G:5.85% B:0.46%) 38.62% (G:5.26% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.970 +1.371
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.741±0.038 (+0.703..+0.778)
Double/Take:+0.215 (-0.526)±0.086 (+0.128..+0.301)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.259)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 40.1%
Rollout details
596 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Versus XGR++:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 213
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=abaaB-C-C--BcCb--b-cA--A--:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:5:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.28% (G:33.93% B:6.08%) 63.21% (G:33.57% B:6.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.72% (G:5.76% B:0.26%) 36.79% (G:5.98% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.913 +1.376
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.698
Double/Take:+0.437 (-0.261)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.302)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

Versus for money eval:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 213
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=abaaB-C-C--BcCb--b-cA--A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.95% (G:33.99% B:6.03%) 63.00% (G:34.10% B:6.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.05% (G:5.75% B:0.26%) 37.00% (G:5.75% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.599 +1.207
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.818 (-0.099)
Double/Take:+0.917
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.083)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

The 3 away 4 away is a suspiciously huge no double, but who knows.

As the eval. percentages are actually more favourable to white than those on the rollout, XG's evaluation match equity calculation must be skewed. I'm not sure why.

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