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OLM Su 12/18/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 20 December 2011, at 3:56 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 12/18/11 (Taper_Mike)

Mike wrote:

In a mutual holding game, a racing lead is often a timing disadvantage.

I think this is not generally true. Stick touched on this point in a Daily Quiz Recap. In a priming game, a racing lead is often a timing disadvantage, but mutual holding games are very different beasts.

Suppose first that you and your opponent have anchors that are facing off against each other. Then one way you can have a racing lead is to have the more advanced anchor, but about the same number of spare pips to play as your opponent. Usually this is an advantage, in that both players are about even money to lose by getting hit, and you are more likely to win if neither player hits.

Another possibility is that you don't have the more advanced anchor, so the racing lead means you're more likely to have to blink first. However, you still have the advantage in those variations where you're not hit, and since you will usually have numerous turns to roll doublets and your opponent still has to hit you after you leave a shot, these variations account for a big chunk of the equity. Secondly, unless your forward position is already crunched, you'll often have a better board when the critical moment arrives, giving you some life after death even if you're hit.

Now suppose you and your opponent have anchors that don't directly face each other, as in the OLM. Then a racing lead means that you're the one with the option of making a "fast break," turning it into a one-way holding game that is to your advantage. Your opponent, being behind in the race, isn't usually going to want to make a fast break even if his dice allow it. In other words, being the first to break anchor isn't necessarily a disadvantage if it doesn't leave a direct shot.

There are other things going on in this position, e.g., White's straggler can be attacked if Blue rolls well, but I wanted to address your comment directly.

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