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Daily Quiz 12/17: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 21 December 2011, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/17 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 153 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=aa--bCBBB-B-bC-----cb-bAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	76.63% (G: 18.01% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.37% (G: 4.67% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.533
Double:	+1.396
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.978 (-0.022)
Double/Take:	+1.242 (+0.242)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaB-D-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	XG Roller+	24/16*	eq: +0.398
	Player: Opponent: 60.13% (G:16.82% B:0.88%) 39.87% (G:9.60% B:0.36%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/3* 6/3	eq: +0.360 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 57.15% (G:20.83% B:1.09%) 42.85% (G:11.15% B:0.57%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

Truncated rollout (@7 moves using 3-ply):

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 7 point match pip: 81 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CCBCbD--------a-cbbbba-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.11% (G: 0.08% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.89% (G: 0.04% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.13% (G: 0.04% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.87% (G: 0.02% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.583
Double:	+1.167
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.842 (-0.098)
Double/Take:	+0.940
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.060)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.004 (+0.838...+0.847)
Confidence Double:	± 0.007 (+0.933...+0.947)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout for money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 81 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CCBCbD--------a-cbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	79.12% (G: 0.07% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.88% (G: 0.03% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.15% (G: 0.13% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.85% (G: 0.08% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.582
Double:	+1.167
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.880 (-0.120)
Double/Take:	+1.038 (+0.038)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.003 (+0.877...+0.883)
Confidence Double:	± 0.006 (+1.032...+1.043)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 12/17
  Daily Quiz -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 1:20 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/17
    pontiac -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 2:06 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/17
    kruidenbuiltje -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 2:37 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/17
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/17: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 21 December 2011, at 12:15 a.m.