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What and Why ?

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 21 December 2011, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: What and Why ? (Sebastiaan Kuijs)

Hi,

the best moves of blue are rather duplicated.

The safe point making numbers (62,51) should be used to escape the last checker I guess.

If we look at it that way, blue will use his following move to escape, or to shift/create builders.

White will have about 6/36 hits from the bar plus 5/36 hits or blitz-hits (depending on a blue escape or not).

Of course the blitz-hits are not totally effective, like normal hits, so lets give white 9/36 hits.

So on his first next move blue will have 25%.

The white hitting numbers will decrease, depending on blue making another point or escaping safely.

In a very optimistic scenario for blue white's hitting chances will half every move,

this gives white 25+12,5+6+3 = 46,5%.

With the white anchor there aren't a lot of gammons to activate (because of the Jacoby rule),

I'd say No Double.

After the next fan, when the good point making numbers don't duplicate, it will probably be a DT.

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