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65R 41?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Sunday, 25 December 2011, at 2:51 p.m.

In Response To: 65R 41? (Casper van der Tak)

This one is still too close to call. Here's a note about Neil's 4-ply rollout:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=65890

I don't know if the actual rollout was ever posted or not. Also see Nack's comments:

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=65979

Here's my own brief 3-ply rollout which includes the Up play.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Black
XGID=-b----E-C---eF---c-e----A-:0:0:-1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: -0.2278
Player:
Opponent:		44.00% (G:11.49% B:0.49%)
56.00% (G:13.44% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ±0.0108 (-0.2386...-0.2171) - [64.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes
2.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.2308 (-0.0029)
Player:
Opponent:		44.47% (G:11.58% B:0.54%)
55.53% (G:15.02% B:1.14%)		Conf.: ±0.0117 (-0.2425...-0.2191) - [35.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
3.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.2525 (-0.0246)
Player:
Opponent:		44.09% (G:10.69% B:0.50%)
55.91% (G:14.64% B:0.94%)		Conf.: ±0.0109 (-0.2634...-0.2416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: -0.2611 (-0.0333)
Player:
Opponent:		43.22% (G:9.62% B:0.42%)
56.78% (G:12.38% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ±0.0102 (-0.2713...-0.2510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 01 minute
5.Rollout113/8eq: -0.2763 (-0.0485)
Player:
Opponent:		42.80% (G:10.46% B:0.43%)
57.20% (G:13.49% B:0.79%)		Conf.: ±0.0106 (-0.2869...-0.2657) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41350040
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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