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What and impress me with the WHY

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 13 September 2007, at 12:14 p.m.

In Response To: What and impress me with the WHY (Stick)

Blue has a good 20 pip lead after rolling, effectively 17 or so after accounting for wastage. How should he maximize it?

If Blue waits, he breaks his board and wastes most of the seven pips he's rolled. If he runs, he risks being pointed on.

16 rolls point if Blue runs, after which Blue is pretty much dead. There's a very big swing on 66 - a direct shot compared to White playing on, roughly a point! 55 and 44 catch up in the race, making the game about even. On the other non-hitters, I think Blue cubes White out if he's escaped a man. Otherwise he has to take a roll.

I can't analyze any further; I run as Blue. If I break my board now, the situation is approximately the same next roll, except my board is no longer a killer and I've burned some pips. Sure, I might roll 44 or 55 next time, but can also roll two low numbers and burn more pips; 61, 62 and 63 will also waste pips if White has retained the 11 point.

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