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Nice analysis. I agree with your concepts and relative statements, though I believe you overestimate the value of W, which I would call less unreasonable in your suggested variant position on the right. (I'll add it, as well as a couple of other plays to my rollout of the left-hand position and post that rollout after Ian posts his.)
In the variant position, S and D must lose mucho ground because the midpoint is going from four checkers to three (instead of from five to four). That's true of $ as well though it probably stays roughly the same because it unstacks the 6pt instead of the midpoint. I think U should pretty much dominate the variant position because it leaves the midpoint alone and is boosted by the 7-pip gain in the race.
Nack