For comparison, here are the XGR+ evals from XG version 1.
In Number 1, XGR+ thinks the top five plays are close. I did look at the double hit but didn't like it and am a little surprised that XGR+ thinks it's a contender.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 157 | | 11 point match | pip: 161 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-a--a-E-D---dD---bbe---AA-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 24/20 13/8 | eq: -0.231 |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.97% (G:9.65% B:0.38%) 55.03% (G:14.45% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/20 6/1* | eq: -0.241 (-0.010) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.27% (G:9.40% B:0.29%) 55.73% (G:13.60% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 24/15 | eq: -0.245 (-0.014) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.84% (G:9.88% B:0.40%) 55.16% (G:16.08% B:0.59%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 8/4* 6/1* | eq: -0.249 (-0.018) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.81% (G:12.21% B:0.38%) 56.19% (G:16.03% B:0.92%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/4* | eq: -0.253 (-0.022) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.93% (G:11.72% B:0.48%) 56.07% (G:15.53% B:0.77%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
XGR+ takes here.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 152 | | 11 point match | pip: 131 score: 2
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=b-B-A-CbCB---C----de-b--A-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.82% (G: 32.16% B: 1.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.18% (G: 7.08% B: 0.29%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.637 |
| Double: | +1.247 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.816 (-0.130) |
| Double/Take: | +0.946 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.054) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 134 | | 11 point match | pip: 120 score: 2
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=--BbB-CbBB---C---Acbabba--:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.63% (G: 9.72% B: 0.39%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.37% (G: 4.76% B: 0.10%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.406 |
| Double: | +0.797 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.596 |
| Double/Take: | +0.539 (-0.058) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.404) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No Double / Take |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross