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Daily Quiz 12/30: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 2 January 2012, at 9:25 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/30 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 1 score: 3 pip: 160 13 point match pip: 140 score: 2 Blue is Player 2
XGID=aB-B--CB-a--eD---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:13:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	68.51% (G: 37.84% B: 0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.49% (G: 6.32% B: 0.33%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.696
Double:	+1.426
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.898 (-0.102)
Double/Take:	+1.213 (+0.213)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 156 13 point match pip: 161 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aB-D-B---dE---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:31:3:3:0:13:10
Blue to play 31

1.	XG Roller+	24/23 24/21	eq: -0.433
	Player: Opponent: 40.34% (G:9.88% B:0.40%) 59.66% (G:18.31% B:0.74%)
2.	XG Roller+	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.499 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 38.16% (G:10.17% B:0.38%) 61.84% (G:17.55% B:1.00%)
3.	XG Roller+	24/23 6/3*	eq: -0.566 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 37.30% (G:9.70% B:0.40%) 62.70% (G:19.45% B:1.12%)
4.	XG Roller+	24/21 6/5	eq: -0.581 (-0.147)
	Player: Opponent: 37.50% (G:8.56% B:0.34%) 62.50% (G:20.81% B:1.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 156 13 point match pip: 156 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aB-D-C---dD---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:31:3:3:0:13:10
Blue to play 31

1.	XG Roller+	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.234
	Player: Opponent: 44.00% (G:13.48% B:0.51%) 56.00% (G:15.12% B:0.76%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/23 24/21	eq: -0.356 (-0.122)
	Player: Opponent: 41.89% (G:10.76% B:0.45%) 58.11% (G:16.80% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Truncated rollout:

		White is Player 2 score: 23 pip: 145 25 point match pip: 135 score: 21 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BEbB-a-bEA-bc-c-b----:0:0:1:00:21:23:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64.26% (G: 6.86% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.74% (G: 4.36% B: 0.14%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.65% (G: 6.39% B: 0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.35% (G: 4.11% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.276
Double:	+0.574
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.615
Double/Take:	+0.574 (-0.041)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.385)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.011 (+0.603...+0.626)
Confidence Double:	± 0.012 (+0.562...+0.585)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 12/30
  Daily Quiz -- Saturday, 31 December 2011, at 3:32 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/30
    KenB -- Saturday, 31 December 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/30
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 1 January 2012, at 12:52 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/30
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 January 2012, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 12/30
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 January 2012, at 10:50 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 12/30: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 January 2012, at 9:25 p.m.