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OT: Is Denver really the better Superbowl bet?

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Wednesday, 4 January 2012, at 6:30 p.m.

In Response To: OT: Is Denver really the better Superbowl bet? (Sam Pottle)

Your approach makes more sense. I was using the "net" return on a $1 bet (odds - $1).

Since the "real" odds have to sum to 1, I calculated "relative" odds (implied odds * 1/sum implied odds). I wonder whether these relative odds are the real odds, without the book's take factored in.

If we then calculate the return on each bet ($0.87) it looks like the book's take is $0.13 per dollar bet.

The "Delta" column is the defference between the implied and the relative odds.

It looks like all bets have equal expected return, so no bet has an an advantage.

Is this correct? Will appreciate your thoughts.

Odds Implied Relative Return Delta

2.62 0.382 0.331 0.866470622 0.051

4.50 0.222 0.193 0.866470622 0.030

6.00 0.167 0.144 0.866470622 0.022

8.00 0.125 0.108 0.866470622 0.017

13.00 0.077 0.067 0.866470622 0.010

15.00 0.067 0.058 0.866470622 0.009

26.00 0.038 0.033 0.866470622 0.005

41.00 0.024 0.021 0.866470622 0.003

67.00 0.015 0.013 0.866470622 0.002

67.00 0.015 0.013 0.866470622 0.002

81.00 0.012 0.011 0.866470622 0.002

101.00 0.010 0.009 0.866470622 0.001

SUM 1.1541 1.0000 10.3976 0.1541

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