The play made

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The play made

Posted By: Michael Petch
Date: Monday, 16 January 2012, at 5:39 p.m.

In Response To: What's your play? From Nunez/Woolsey Masters Jackpot (Michael Petch)

I gave this problem a bit of time before posting the play that was made and the rollout on it (rollout just for completeness). There is a clear winner, and the other two are pretty close.
Just played the 65 TB, however it did come up a discussion point after the match with Kit and Justin.
Justin made the safe play by clearing the 65.

White is Kit Woolsey

score: 9
pip: 125

11 point match

pip: 96
score: 7

Blue is Justin NUnez

XGID=--BCbCCB----b--b--Bbbbab--:0:0:1:65:7:9:0:11:10
Blue to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 6/1 eq: +0.235
Player:
Opponent: 50.05% (G:11.80% B:0.46%)
49.95% (G:9.35% B:0.33%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.230...+0.240) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout² 18/7 eq: +0.115 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent: 45.99% (G:12.83% B:0.63%)
54.01% (G:4.74% B:0.18%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.110...+0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds
3. Rollout³ 7/2 7/1 eq: +0.110 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent: 48.41% (G:11.12% B:0.53%)
51.59% (G:9.27% B:0.38%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.105...+0.115) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
4. 1-ply 18/13 7/1 eq: -0.523 (-0.757)
Player:
Opponent: 29.87% (G:13.56% B:0.18%)
70.13% (G:33.97% B:3.25%)

¹ 7272 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44657072
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5760 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44657072
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 7056 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44657072
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2