BGonline.org Forums

32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 19 January 2012, at 8:23 p.m.

In Response To: 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51 (Timothy Chow)

Why did you expect A and $ to be close? The extra blot that $ leaves seems significant. You expected the pros and cons of leaving the blot on the 11pt to cancel out?

Yes, roughly. However, it is conceptually more difficult to (1) compare a pair of 5pt-vs-7pt-slotting plays where not only are (a) the 13pt-8pt-6pt distributions 3-4-5 vs 4-4-5, but more importantly (b) one has an extra 11pt blot/builder and the other doesn't (13/7 vs 11/5) than (2) to compare a pair of plays that differ only in the 13pt-8pt-6pt distributions of 3-4-5 vs 3-5-4 (13/7 vs 13/8 6/5). That's the reason I chose the latter pair as my basis of comparison in the analysis.

To best isolate the superiority of slotting the 7pt vs the 5pt, one should compare 13/7 with 13/5, or compare 11/7 with 11/5, requiring different rolls of the dice. According to XGR++, equities are –.611 vs –.641, and –.614 vs –.657; in other words, the 7pt is favored over the 5pt in the first case (with 11pt blot) by .030, and it is favored in the second case (no 11pt blot) by .043.

Distributional changes are subtle, up to a point. Changing 13/5 to 13/8 6/5 by moving the fifth checker on the 6pt back 2 pips, thereby tweaking the 13pt-8pt-6pt distribution from 3-4-5 to 3-5-4, alters the equity by a mere .004 (from –.641 to –.645).

I say "up to a point" because if you compare 11/7 to 11/7 8/6 (same end-position as 11/6 8/7, but thinking of it as 11/7 8/6 makes it visually clearer to isolate the deuce), the equities are –.663 and –.614, a difference of .049. The 8pt-6pt distribution of 3-6 is terrible. Hence, it would be improper to say that the difference between 13/7 (3-4-5 distribution and –.611) and 11/6 8/7 (4-3-6 distribution and –.663) is mainly the existence of the 11pt blot/builder. If we factor out the overly-tall-6pt factor, the 11pt blot/builder (compared to it being a safely stored fourth checker on the midpoint) nets out to a difference of only .003.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• What would you do with this 51?
  Michael Depreli -- Monday, 16 January 2012, at 10:03 p.m.
  • What would you do with this 51?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 16 January 2012, at 11:01 p.m.
    • Peeked at the bot and...
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 16 January 2012, at 11:07 p.m.
  • What would you do with this 51?
    Ian Shaw -- Monday, 16 January 2012, at 11:07 p.m.
  • What would you do with this 51?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 4:28 a.m.
  • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
    Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 12:10 p.m.
    • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 2:25 p.m.
      • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 2:48 p.m.
    • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 3:59 p.m.
    • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 5:32 p.m.
      • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
        Stick -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 6:13 p.m.
        • 32S-53S-33M-64
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 6:56 p.m.
          • 32S-53S-33M-64
            Stick -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 7:57 p.m.
      • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
        Ben E. -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 8:09 p.m.
      • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 8:11 p.m.
        • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 10:31 p.m.
          • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
            Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 19 January 2012, at 3:49 p.m.
            • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
              Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 19 January 2012, at 8:23 p.m.
      • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 8:13 p.m.
      • 32S-53S-33M-64S-63$-51 — Nacbracs
        Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 9:21 p.m.
    • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 5:38 p.m.
      • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
        Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 8:08 p.m.
    • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
      Ben E. -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 6:59 p.m.
      • What would you do with this 51? **ROLLOUT**
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 January 2012, at 7:37 p.m.